I Think Today Is The Day The Dollar Breaks Down

Update below, discussing the G-7 intervention. 

Update II below, discussing today’s action (Friday March 18). 

Update III below, one final chart. 

I could be wrong—hell, most of the time, I’m way wrong. But I do think that today is the day the dollar breaks down.

Get used to it.

Consider the evidence: 

The Bank of Japan managed to keep the yen down following last Friday’s Sendai quake. It was trading in an eerily placid 81-to-82 band on Monday, Tuesday and Wednesday—but then Thursday (Japan time), someone at the BoJ must’ve prematurely decided that it was all over, because they let go of the gas. 

What happened? It all went south—huge. As I write this morning (8:12am EST), the yen is trading at 78.50 to the dollar. 

Meanwhile, on the eastern side of the Pacific pond, the Producer Price Index numbers came out yesterday—and they weren’t pretty. During February, PPI rose 1.6%, against a consensus estimate of 0.7%. For the year ending February 28, the PPI rose 5.6%. (report here)

Tomorrow, the Consumer Price Index numbers come out—and if the PPI numbers are any gauge, they do not look promising. 

Read more »